Saudi Attack: Research Firm Predicts There Will Be No Windfall For Nigeria

This image provided by the US government and DigitalGlobe shows damage to the infrastructure at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq.

This image provided by the US government and DigitalGlobe shows damage to the infrastructure at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq. maldonci/AP

An analysis on the impact of the attack on two oil processing plants in Saudi Arabia, which took out five per cent of the world’s daily petroleum supply, concludes that there will be no windfall for Nigeria.

In a report released on Monday, SBM intelligence said the plan by the United States to open up its strategic oil reserves, was behind the closure of that possibility.

The firm said that even if such a window was open, the state of insecurity in the country will limit the extent to which it could stretch its production to meet part of the supply shortfall.

The report said, “Given that the US has said it would release oil from its strategic reserves in order to balance supply, there will be no windfall for Nigeria.

“Internal instability and insecurity mean that Nigeria's ability to take advantage of any major conflict in the Middle East is very limited.”

It however noted that if the rise in prices holds up, some short term benefit would come to the country.

This attack also gives Nigeria an opportunity to continue its longstanding disobedience of the petroleum output quota it reached with its signing of the Declaration of Cooperation in December 2018.

The DoC was an agreement between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a Russian alliance.

SBM expects OPEC not to enforce output restrictions in the light of present happenings.

The report added, “Given what has happened in Saudi Arabia, OPEC is unlikely to enforce the production cuts until the Saudis are back in the market.

“SBM believes that it is unlikely that Nigeria will get the type of revenue rain it did during the Gulf War of 1990-1991.”

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